Again against Roddick. Bolleli quite disappointing yesterday, too much unsecurity and too many unforced errors, Roddick didn´t have really to play that good to win against the Italian. Today he should have more problems against the Spanish clayer Robredo. Robredo, yesterday with an impressive win against Davydenko, is the much better clayer and 1.81 odds on him are definitely value.

Odds already dropping on this one, the Italian is the typical clay-courter, who on top appears to be in good shape. He reached the finals last week in Munich and won in Rome against Patience and Simon. Roddick of course the typical anti-clayer, he won in the first round against his American friend Mardy Fish, who also prefers to play on any other surface than clay. The match against Fish was Roddick´s first match on clay this season. On clay Bolelli is the clear favourite, odds of 1.91 are really good and have to be taken.

Bwin again with extremely high odds for a player, the other bookies still don´t have any odds for this game, but I´m pretty sure, that the average odds will be much lower than the 3.78. Not that much to analyse at this odds, Horna a decent clayer with pretty good results this week in Rome, he defeated Gasquet in first round and today he sent Acasuso home in 2 sets. Stepanek´s win against an overplayed Ferrer too overrated here, odds on Horna will surely fall, so 3.78 clear value.

I´m sorry, I do not have much time, so I´ll keep it very short, but this is surely a value-pick. Gonzalez today with the 4th game in 5 days, in Munich (since SF) and here he played 3 tough 3-set matches. Yesterday against Tipsa he had to take a medical timeout and was advised from the doc to quit the game, but he continued despite his injurie. Have to admit, that I havn´t seen Korolev play yet, but his stats on clay are not that bad (SF in Valncia, first round win in Rome against Söderling). Gonzalez overplayed and maybe with a big handicap, 2.52 odds on the Russian talent surely are value.

Odds already heavily dropping, but 1.9 is still worth trying. Have to admit, that this is kind of a risky game, because the potential of Tsonga on clay courts is still pretty unknown. But due to his playing style, which consists of a strong serve and a powerful forehand, I do not think that he will be that successful on clay as he was on hard this year. On top of that he hasn´t played a match since march in Miami. Simon on the other hand appears not to be in that great shape and here lies the risk in this pick. He lost his last 2 games on clay against Ramirez-Hidalgo and Cipolla. But apart from his shape I consider him the favourite, his favourite surface is clay and though losing he already played some matches on clay this year, which also should be an advantage. I give Simon here 65% to win this, so odds on him are value.

Have to try this, Tipsarevic kind of an allrounder, he surely knows to play on clay, like for instance 2 weeks ago in Monte Carlo, where he won against PH Mathieu and Lapentti before losing to Ferrer. Last week he had to retire in the first round against Gulbis. Gonzales appears to be in good shape, he just yesterday won the tournament in Munich and that´s also a reason why I´ll go with Tipsa tomorrow, players who just come from winning a tournament use to be a little tired an unmotivated in their following first round, maybe that´s not the case with Fernando, but at this odds I have to try Tipsa, who is not a bad clayer and should not be underrated in this match against Gonzalez.

On this match I´ll try again my luck with the (odds-)outsider. Both players with decent results on clay, though this season they haven´t played yet that many games on this surface. Nieminen with a win against Ciquel and losses against Ferrero and Kukushkin. Stepanek with a loss against Söderling in Monte Carlo. Head 2 Head 2-1 in favour of Nieminen.
Since both players are not showing that they are playing in an excellent shape and because additionally both players are not 2 typical clayers, I can´t understand why Nieminen has odds > 3, so Value clearly on the Finn.

I´ll try some outsider picks again today and will start with the Belgian talent Steve Darcis. In my opinion this is gonna be a pretty tight game against the Croatian Ljubicic. Ivan´s favourite surface is surely not clay, his strong serve and playing style fits more to the hardcourt. He played 2 games this season on clay, a win against the almost retired Kuerten and a loss against Djokovic. Darcis played last week in Munich, where he won against Becker, but then lost to the surprisingly good playing El Aynaoui in 3 sets (4:6 6:3 3:6). Darcis favourite surface is clay and both players still have to show, how they adapt to the surface at the start of the clay-season, so I can not understand why Ljubi is that much of a favourite and sequentially I will try a small-medium stake on Darcis.

Definitely a Valuepick. Montanes a solid, spanish clayer with a good shape in Barcelona against the Swiss Wawrinka, who made an impressive win today against Nalbandian but really doesn´t fit that well into the category clay-courter. The only game played on clay between those two won Montanes last year in Rome. Wawrinka´s playing style as I said more suitable for hard-court, Montanes has the surface advantage and although Wawrinka should be without a doubt the favourite in this match, odds of 4 on the Spaniard are clear value and sure deserve a small stake.

Average odds on Chela on this one are 1.67, Pinnacle with a 1.82 on Chela, which is clear value. Chela in my opinion the much better clayer, I think Gulbis a little overrated here due to his win yesterday against Moya, who is clearly not the player he used to be. So the close win (4:6 6:1 6:4) over the Spaniard yesterday shouldn´t be overrated. The Latvian profited in the first round from the retirement in the 2nd set from Tipsarevic, in the clay-tournament before Barcelona he was demolished by Granollers with 2-6 0-6. Chela here with wins over Garcia-Lopez and Marc Lopez, who had to retire yesterday. I just consider Chela the much better clay-courtler, although his last performances weren´t that convincing I give him 65-70% chances to win this, so 1.82 on Chela imo value.